El Niño winter heating costs: who saves, who gets sticker shock

El Niño is expected to become unusually strong in the coming months, bringing warmer-than-normal temperatures to much of the country.

That sounds like good news for your heating bill this winter, but there could be a catch:

How much you save depends heavily on what fuels your home.

While a milder winter means your heating system may run less, it doesn’t necessarily mean the fuel itself will be cheaper.

The latest projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show about half of Americans could spend less on heating this winter, while other households are expected to see a huge increase.

Let’s break it down.

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Natural gas: The numbers look encouraging

Natural gas users have some of the best news heading into winter.

The EIA expects natural gas inventories to remain above average, helping push prices down about 9% heading into early 2027.

Put those pieces together with a milder winter, and there could be a lot less pressure on natural-gas heating bills.

(MORE: Prepare your home, bank account and grocery cart for El Niño)

Propane: Plenty of supply

Propane supplies are also looking healthy.

EIA projections show inventories building to well above average by the end of this month.

That gives the market a little more breathing room if winter demand picks up.

Natural gas and propane households, which together account for roughly half of U.S. homes, can confidently expect to spend less on average this winter than they did last winter.

Electricity: Less demand, but rising costs

Electricity users could get some help from milder weather, since heating systems may not need to run as often.

But electricity prices and demand are on the rise.

(MORE: What El Niño actually means for your winter weather)

The EIA expects wholesale electricity prices this winter to average about 11% higher than last winter. The impact will vary significantly by region, too.

For example, prices in the PJM electricity market (most of the mid-Atlantic) are expected to be up about 41%, while Northwest Mid-Columbia (Western U.S.) prices are projected to fall 23%.

In other words, two electrically-heated households on opposite sides of the country could also have opposite heating bills this winter.

Heating oil: The biggest wild card

This is where the outlook gets much less comfortable.

Unlike natural gas and propane, heating oil prices are closely tied to global oil markets, meaning geopolitics can have a big impact on what you pay at home.

(MORE: California declares El Niño emergency)

The EIA forecasts heating-oil prices will rise more than 30% from last winter, impacting about 3% of U.S. households, concentrated in the Northeast.

And prices are already making that outlook sting: September's average retail heating-oil price was $6.29 per gallon, pushing way past the feared $6 milestone.

So, no matter how you heat your home, there's one thing to keep in mind:

El Niño may turn down the thermostat on Mother Nature, but weather is just one piece of a larger puzzle that makes up your heating bill.